ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI CURRENT ACCOUNT DI INDONESIA

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the factors that affect the current account in Indonesia for the period 1993–2023 with a focus on the variables of exports, imports, exchange rates, and gross domestic product (GDP). The problem raised is the fluctuation of the current account which is influenced by the dynamics of international trade and macroeconomic conditions, which can have an impact on national economic stability. The research method used is the Error Correction Model (ECM) to test the short-term and long-term influence between independent variables and current accounts. The data used are annual secondary data from the World Bank and Bank Indonesia. Data processing is carried out using EViews 13 software. The results of the study show that in the short term, exports have a positive and significant effect, while imports have a negative and significant effect. The exchange rate has a positive but insignificant effect, while GDP has a negative and insignificant effect. In the long term, exports will continue to have a positive and significant effect, imports will have a negative and significant effect, the exchange rate will have a positive and insignificant effect, while GDP will have a negative and insignificant effect on the current account. In conclusion, exports and imports are variables that consistently affect the current account both in the short and long term, so that policies to increase export competitiveness and import control are important strategies to improve Indonesia's current account balance.